Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfef5…2a42 other 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-0%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%5W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 24% −$23
politics 9% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$5
economics 5% −$8
world 4% −$23
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 82 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.3% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses5 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage135d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $825 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $289 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $85 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $282 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $355 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $291 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $333 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $288 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $38 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $38 3h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 4h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 11h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 13h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2 14h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 15h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 17h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 18h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 21h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $39 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 30h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 32h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 33h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 41h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 45h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 46h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.02 · official $38.02 (match) · 1475 history records