Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfef9…f2b5 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$97 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days−$178
14 days−$178
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$490
crypto 26% +$135
world 10% +$82
sports 7% +$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 25% -17.9%
≤30d 31 +1.9% -7.8% 29% 29% -14.4%
≤90d 33 +4.2% -5.8% 33% 33% -12.4%
all 33 +4.2% -5.8% 33% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 33% -12.4%
10% -14.8% 30% -20.8%
15% -23.0% 30% -28.4%
20% -30.6% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$54 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage32d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 51¢ 86¢ $100 $168 +$68 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$107 +113%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$100 -95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $211 +$188 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$70 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$179 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$184 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $110 −$100 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $108 +$82 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 +$135 +127%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $159 −$150 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $106 −$100 -95%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$96 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$93 +1244%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 −$25 -94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $58 +$41 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $53 −$50 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $126 +$72 +57%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $53 +$31 +59%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $109 +$13 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $105 49m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $202 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $95 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $106 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $399 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $106 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $106 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $54 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $55 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $288 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $54 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $54 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $292 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $109 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $110 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $190 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $108 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $10 36h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $240 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $106 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $106 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $106 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $106 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.65 · official $165.69 · 56 history records