Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff05…6d1f
weather · 44 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$32 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$22 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage19d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$29
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? No 79¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? No 77¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-17%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $54 +$40 +74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $6 +$4 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 6? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 63% −$19
tech 36% +$41
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 63¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $3 24h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 95¢ $94 38h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 35¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 2¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 30¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -14.1% -22.3% 59% 44% +7.5%
≤30d 40 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 40% +0.4%
≤90d 40 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 40% +0.4%
all 40 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 40% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 40% +0.4%
10% -33.8% 25% -9.2%
15% -40.2% 12% -18.0%
20% -46.1% 12% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.80 · official $7.80 (match) · 99 history records