Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FF 0xff09…25ab world 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,131 (+28%) realized +$1,248 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%80W / 73L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$51
14 days+$117
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$740
sports 34% +$283
other 17% −$71
crypto 5% +$85
tech 3% +$21
politics 2% −$1
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +126.5% +104.9% 71% 43% +6.9%
≤30d 80 +47.0% +33.0% 60% 45% -1.1%
≤90d 153 +58.5% +43.4% 52% 40% +17.7%
all 153 +58.5% +43.4% 52% 40% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.4% 40% +17.7%
10% ← realistic here +29.6% 37% +6.4%
15% +17.1% 30% -3.9%
20% +5.6% 27% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,125
Realized+$1,248
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses80 / 73
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions151
Markets (closed)153 / 232
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 151 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $111 $72 −$39 (-35%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $60 $58 −$1 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $33 $46 +$13 (+41%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $36 $45 +$9 (+25%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+26%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 49¢ 90¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+86%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 73¢ 56¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-23%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jun 16 $0 +$4 +2028%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +574%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $43 +$29 +68%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 −$6 -73%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7 +$20 +280%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$20 +982%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $13 +$11 +86%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $4 −$1 -13%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $17 +$15 +86%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $54 +$57 +106%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $27 +$7 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $3 −$1 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $4 +$3 +80%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $9 +$10 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $2 +$1 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $53 −$51 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $125 +$53 +43%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $7 +$4 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $15 −$15 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $68 +$32 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $59 −$21 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 11m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 17m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 28m
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 33m
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 4h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 4h
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 6h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 7h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 7h
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 8h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 8h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 8h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 8h
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,124.65 · official $1,123.66 (match) · 3500 history records