Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff09…80b5 sports 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,641 (-21%) realized −$1,610 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%79W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$57
14 days−$37
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,695
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +91.3% +73.1% 33% 33% +85.6%
≤30d 47 -25.7% -32.8% 28% 28% -53.0%
≤90d 247 -2.6% -11.8% 32% 32% -29.1%
all 247 -2.6% -11.8% 32% 32% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 32% -29.1%
10% -20.3% 32% -35.9%
15% -28.0% 31% -42.1%
20% -35.0% 31% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$33 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,610
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses79 / 168
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage89d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 20¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 +$92 +474%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $28 −$27 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13 −$13 -97%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $20 +$30 +152%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 −$29 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $21 +$36 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$28 +140%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$28 +140%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser Jun 06 $16 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $40 +$43 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $409 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $87 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $23 +$23 +97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $90 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ May 31 $40 −$39 -98%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup May 31 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $35 +$38 +109%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $19 +$13 +70%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 30 $26 +$98 +384%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs May 30 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 30 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $19 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 29 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $19 +$21 +109%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro May 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $150 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $84 +$100 +118%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $40 +$45 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship May 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $122 −$119 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $40 +$53 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 23¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 45¢ $28 8d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 36¢ $9 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 12¢ $13 9d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 39¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 12¢ $31 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 9¢ $30 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 43¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 37¢ $14 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 10¢ $15 11d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 29¢ $27 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 36¢ $21 11d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser BUY AM Gaming 12¢ $16 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 41¢ $18 12d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 41¢ $20 12d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 41¢ $20 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $44 12d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 47¢ $40 12d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 20¢ $2 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 20¢ $299 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 46¢ $59 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 46¢ $49 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 27¢ $51 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 41¢ $36 15d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY MIBR 50¢ $23 15d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FlyQuest 30¢ $53 15d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FlyQuest 31¢ $37 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 384 history records