Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff0c…81a1
weather · 746 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$981 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$968 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,831
Realized+$968
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses736 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)739 / 746
Avg bet$250
Trades / day72.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 739 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$379
7 days−$162
14 days−$1
30 days+$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $675 $677 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $593 $598 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $582 $587 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $380 $382 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $265 $265 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on June 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $143 $143 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on June 6? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 3? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 3? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20? No 100¢ 0¢ $256 $0 −$256 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4? Jun 12 $197 −$197 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20? Jun 12 $256 −$256 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $591 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $342 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $664 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $737 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $671 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $262 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $589 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $307 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $298 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $317 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $293 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $298 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $586 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 10 $294 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $587 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $137 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $293 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,434
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $123 22m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 22m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 27m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 28m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $21 43m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $371 54m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $172 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $298 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $79 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $232 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $84 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $206 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $143 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -0.7% -10.1% 99% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 575 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 739 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 739 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 0% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,830.59 · official $2,827.97 (match) · 3500 history records