Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff12…cdc4
crypto · 375 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$341 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$327 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$891
Realized+$327
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses178 / 148
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions49
Markets (closed)326 / 375
History coverage111d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 49 History 326 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$60
14 days−$86
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 82¢ $152 $168 +$17 (+11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $91 $96 +$5 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $57 $76 +$19 (+33%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 99¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+14%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 98¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+7%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 65¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+7%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 85¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 84¢ 82¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-26%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 43¢ 35¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-54%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-37%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 42¢ 27¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 87¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 71¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 88¢ 85¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $3 +$3 +79%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $71 +$37 +53%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +25%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $5 +$4 +77%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $6 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $3 −$3 -82%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $9 −$6 -71%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m Jun 04 $2 −$2 -85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $93 +$185 +199%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $5 +$1 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "SPY x FAMILY Season 3" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchy Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX" win Best Original Anime at the 202 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 02 $4 −$3 -84%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 02 $7 −$6 -87%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 02 $25 −$4 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 02 $18 −$3 -18%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 02 $60 −$52 -88%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $16 −$4 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 02 $60 −$13 -22%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 02 $10 −$7 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $141 −$130 -92%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -85%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$40
other 27% +$77
politics 16% +$96
crypto 10% +$181
economics 5% −$46
finance 3% −$42
culture 2% −$10
sports 1% +$36
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $11 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.0% -0.5% 69% 50% +18.7%
≤30d 78 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 29% -5.4%
≤90d 173 -9.5% -18.2% 47% 29% -2.0%
all 326 -6.0% -14.9% 55% 38% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 38% -4.6%
10% -23.1% 30% -13.8%
15% -30.5% 23% -22.1%
20% -37.3% 17% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.32 · official $892.16 (match) · 1934 history records