Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff14…dd5b sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-3%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$147
14 days+$155
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$88
other 23% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +6.5% -3.6% 44% 42% -2.0%
≤30d 55 +5.9% -4.2% 49% 47% -2.8%
≤90d 55 +5.9% -4.2% 49% 47% -2.8%
all 55 +5.9% -4.2% 49% 47% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 47% -2.8%
10% -13.3% 45% -12.1%
15% -21.7% 40% -20.6%
20% -29.4% 38% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage25d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $570 −$13 -2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $180 +$28 +16%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $60 +$71 +119%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $47 −$47 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $180 +$13 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$72 +474%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $47 +$72 +152%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $63 +$72 +114%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $44 +$65 +148%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $58 −$57 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $28 −$23 -83%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $45 −$45 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$4 -17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $8 +$7 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $12 +$18 +146%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 22 $20 −$12 -57%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $14 +$14 +105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $8 +$14 +188%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $12 +$14 +119%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18 +$15 +83%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18 +$22 +122%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 −$11 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 +$15 +123%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $7 +$13 +172%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +103%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $9 +$8 +88%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Set Handicap: Seidel (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 16¢ $2 26m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $68 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 39¢ $47 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $180 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $60 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $7 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 44¢ $58 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $37 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 93¢ $180 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $63 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 39¢ $47 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $15 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 42¢ $4 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $66 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 14¢ $4 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 38¢ $45 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 17¢ $20 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $7 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $7 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $7 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $7 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $7 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $7 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $7 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $7 14h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $176 14h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $180 14h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $176 14h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $176 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records