Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff15…78ac other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+8%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$24
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$72
crypto 32% $0
sports 15% −$24
weather 5% −$14
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 46% +0.1%
≤30d 62 +12.3% +1.6% 37% 34% -4.7%
≤90d 62 +12.3% +1.6% 37% 34% -4.7%
all 62 +12.3% +1.6% 37% 34% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 34% -4.7%
10% -8.1% 31% -13.8%
15% -17.0% 29% -22.2%
20% -25.1% 26% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $15 −$5 -30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$38 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$14 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$16 +55%
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $5 36h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 4¢ $12 36h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $11 36h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $5 39h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $5 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 17¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 44¢ $14 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 29¢ $11 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 71¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 92¢ $22 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $15 5d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $10 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 63¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $29.92 (match) · 132 history records