Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff15…5941 other 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$20 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$5
world 22% −$16
politics 21% $0
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 4 +50.5% +36.2% 75% 25% -4.3%
all 4 +50.5% +36.2% 75% 25% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.2% 25% -4.3%
10% +23.1% 25% -13.5%
15% +11.2% 25% -21.8%
20% +0.3% 25% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage90d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 50¢ 90¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+79%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 85¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 63¢ 84¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 88¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-79%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 50¢ 47¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 37¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +4%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Mar 26 $2 +$3 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 25h
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 37h
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $6 4d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 6d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $12 10d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $8 12d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $12 62d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 65d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 65d
China coup attempt before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $7 65d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $5 68d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 68d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $2 74d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 74d
Trump declares election interference national emergency? BUY No 69¢ $3 87d
Trump declares election interference national emergency? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 87d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $4 89d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 89d
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 89d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 91d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.11 · official $90.11 (match) · 27 history records