Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff18…84b6 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-12%) realized −$44 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$199
other 38% −$17
economics 24% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.4% -56.0% 0% 0% -99.6%
≤30d 3 -52.4% -56.9% 0% 0% -83.6%
≤90d 3 -52.4% -56.9% 0% 0% -83.6%
all 3 -52.4% -56.9% 0% 0% -83.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.9% 0% -83.6%
10% -61.0% 0% -85.2%
15% -64.8% 0% -86.6%
20% -68.3% 0% -87.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$90 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage16d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $195 $177 −$17 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $128 −$70 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $198 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 8¢ $1 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 80¢ $1 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 81¢ $1 3h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 7¢ $198 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $58 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $126 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.47 · official $177.47 (match) · 10 history records