Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff18…d073 other 289 markets active 16h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized −$144 · open +$152
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%144W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$348
other 26% +$570
crypto 16% −$99
sports 7% −$63
politics 5% −$51
tech 3% −$44
weather 0% −$9
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.8% -7.0% 51% 51% -13.0%
≤30d 57 +4.5% -5.4% 51% 49% -7.2%
≤90d 118 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 47% -20.7%
all 282 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 41% -11.3%
10% -19.9% 30% -19.8%
15% -27.6% 23% -27.6%
20% -34.7% 20% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses144 / 138
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)282 / 289
History coverage404d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 36¢ 49¢ $203 $276 +$73 (+36%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 39¢ 90¢ $50 $118 +$67 (+133%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 52¢ 58¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$11 +117%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$9 +133%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$10 +47%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $7 +$8 +117%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +113%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +113%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$3 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 -1%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $65 +$9 +14%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $14 +$19 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $8 −$4 -47%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $10 −$3 -33%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 25 $31 +$18 +58%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $13 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $12 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $12 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $9 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $8 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 15¢ $15 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $0 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.68 · official $501.68 (match) · 1304 history records