Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff19…3ebe crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$33 (+6%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +13.8% +3.0% 63% 63% -1.7%
≤30d 27 +13.8% +3.0% 63% 63% -1.7%
≤90d 27 +13.8% +3.0% 63% 63% -1.7%
all 27 +13.8% +3.0% 63% 63% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 63% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 63% -11.1%
15% -15.9% 63% -19.7%
20% -24.1% 63% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$30 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$13 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$22 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$31 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $33 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $33 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records