Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff1a…7f49 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$495 (-6%) realized −$500 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$717
14 days−$513
30 days−$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$13
other 31% −$512
crypto 11% +$1
tech 6% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -54.7%
≤30d 6 -9.9% -18.5% 83% 17% -25.8%
≤90d 13 -4.4% -13.5% 92% 8% -16.6%
all 15 -3.8% -13.0% 93% 7% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 7% -15.7%
10% -21.3% 7% -23.7%
15% -28.9% 7% -31.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$718 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage104d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 59¢ 60¢ $564 $569 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $722 −$718 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $720 +$1 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $516 +$205 +40%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 4? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 4? Jun 06 $190 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $510 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? May 14 $510 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $500 +$5 +1%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $508 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $507 +$1 +0%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 07 $506 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $506 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $2.00 end of March? Apr 01 $505 +$1 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $505 +$1 +0%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 14 $504 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $571 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $722 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $720 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $516 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $170 25d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $190 25d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $510 32d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $510 47d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 99¢ $500 51d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $508 64d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 100¢ $507 69d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $506 81d
Raptors vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $506 86d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $2.00 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $505 94d
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY JD Gaming 100¢ $505 98d
Bulls vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 100¢ $504 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.62 · official $568.62 (match) · 31 history records