Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff1c…2721 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$402 (-17%) realized −$393 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate67%48W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$15
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$76
politics 22% −$236
other 5% +$1
crypto 4% −$87
tech 1% −$9
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.1% +1.4% 100% 50% -1.6%
≤30d 45 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 9% -24.3%
≤90d 72 -8.2% -17.0% 67% 7% -25.2%
all 72 -8.2% -17.0% 67% 7% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 7% -25.2%
10% -24.9% 4% -32.4%
15% -32.2% 3% -38.9%
20% -38.8% 1% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$393
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses48 / 24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage64d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 60¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $50 +$7 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $153 +$10 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $30 −$8 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $34 −$10 -28%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $64 −$3 -4%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $231 −$231 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $107 −$87 -81%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $92 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $101 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 31 $20 +$1 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $424 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $3 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $15 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $37 −$2 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.50B? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $20 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $10 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $3 7d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 91¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 89¢ $20 7d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $20 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $62 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $91 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 9d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 97¢ $10 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 79¢ $1 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $19 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 97¢ $10 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 96¢ $5 15d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 18¢ $17 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $25 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.87 · official $60.82 · 184 history records