Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff1d…1f59 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$304 (-2%) realized −$305 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate80%37W / 9L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,034
other 6% +$155
sports 6% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -3.8% -12.9% 80% 15% -13.9%
≤30d 46 -3.8% -12.9% 80% 15% -13.9%
≤90d 46 -3.8% -12.9% 80% 15% -13.9%
all 46 -3.8% -12.9% 80% 15% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 15% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 7% -22.1%
15% -28.9% 2% -29.6%
20% -35.9% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$602) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$200 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses37 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 82¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$18 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $709 −$616 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $809 −$112 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $895 −$82 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $823 +$40 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $765 +$74 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $508 +$139 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $631 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $602 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $562 +$35 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $401 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $541 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $503 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $478 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $471 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $804 −$804 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $701 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $744 +$51 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $703 +$42 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $603 +$46 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $602 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $302 +$24 +8%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $550 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $507 +$133 +26%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $201 +$32 +16%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $170 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $340 +$33 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 −$50 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $10 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $709 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $508 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $631 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $601 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $602 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $562 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $401 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.91 · official $10.91 (match) · 147 history records