Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xff20…d963 other 468 markets active 1d ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+9%) realized +$51 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%166W / 221L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$14
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$6
sports 34% +$35
crypto 5% +$2
world 1% +$2
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +5.6% -4.5% 40% 40% -4.2%
≤30d 245 +8.8% -1.5% 43% 43% +0.4%
≤90d 387 +6.5% -3.7% 43% 43% -0.7%
all 387 +6.5% -3.7% 43% 43% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 43% -0.7%
10% -12.9% 43% -10.2%
15% -21.3% 43% -18.9%
20% -29.0% 38% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses166 / 221
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions81
Markets (closed)387 / 468
History coverage52d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 81 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 68¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+76%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 43¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 44¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-20? Yes 41¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +124%
Will RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UnionTouargaSports vs. COD Meknès end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +325%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ceará SC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 25h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 25h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 26h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 26h
Will Goiás EC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 26h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 26h
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 26h
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 26h
Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 26h
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 26h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 26h
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 27h
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.02 · official $93.23 (match) · 886 history records