Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xff26…9f77 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$270 (-9%) realized −$222 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$130
sports 13% +$104
other 9% −$95
politics 3% −$48
finance 2% −$68
culture 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 1 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 1 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -12.6%
all 45 -13.7% -21.9% 49% 42% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 42% -17.0%
10% -29.4% 33% -25.0%
15% -36.2% 27% -32.2%
20% -42.5% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$51 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage137d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-34%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $50 $2 −$47 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $68 −$2 -3%
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Feb 24 $50 +$61 +122%
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks Feb 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 23 $45 −$44 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 13 $67 +$46 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 13 $50 +$28 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 13 $60 +$32 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 13 $75 +$32 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 13 $94 +$81 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 13 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 13 $70 +$24 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 13 $150 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 13 $67 +$7 +10%
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 13 $100 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 13 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 13 $50 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 13 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 13 $100 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $7 +$8 +116%
Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Feb 08 $50 +$117 +234%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) Feb 08 $50 +$52 +104%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins Feb 06 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $100 +$301 +301%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8? Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 11 be between 1,5 Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 05 $32 +$14 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 05 $50 −$20 -40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 31¢ $65 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $66 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 1h
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $50 118d
Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels SELL North Carolina Tar Heels 100¢ $111 118d
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks BUY Houston Cougars 54¢ $50 119d
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $45 119d
Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels BUY North Carolina Tar Heels 45¢ $50 119d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 52¢ $63 128d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 128d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 128d
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $100 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $67 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $50 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $50 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $78 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $50 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $60 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $107 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $75 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $175 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $94 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $50 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $100 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $94 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $70 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.12 · official $141.25 · 87 history records