Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff26…a5dd sports 117 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,809 (-8%) realized −$2,809 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%50W / 67L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$631est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6,577
14 days−$4,772
30 days−$4,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,315
crypto 1% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -60.8% -64.5% 22% 22% -59.8%
≤30d 117 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 43% -21.3%
≤90d 117 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 43% -21.3%
all 117 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 43% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 43% -21.3%
10% -27.9% 43% -28.8%
15% -34.9% 42% -35.7%
20% -41.3% 38% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$266 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,809
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses50 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$631
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage22d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $462 −$329 -71%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $726 −$266 -37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,310 −$1,285 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,112 −$1,097 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $842 +$271 +32%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $487 +$355 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $665 −$653 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $711 +$441 +62%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $411 +$300 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $991 −$979 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,141 −$511 -45%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,036 −$1,020 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $544 −$537 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $629 −$240 -38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $376 −$370 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $504 −$498 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $193 −$190 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $502 +$348 +69%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $193 −$190 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $255 +$413 +162%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $243 −$240 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $245 +$441 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $275 +$282 +103%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $254 +$104 +41%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $227 +$251 +111%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $498 −$490 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $446 −$440 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $491 +$402 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $364 +$685 +188%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $495 +$361 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $263 −$258 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $402 −$396 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $198 +$204 +103%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $398 −$393 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $365 +$289 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $396 +$368 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $188 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $303 +$160 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $305 +$376 +123%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $227 −$222 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $229 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $187 −$183 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $133 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $462 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 29¢ $461 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $726 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $1,304 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $1,112 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Anastasia Zakharova 100¢ $1,114 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 75¢ $842 4d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 88¢ $842 4d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 50¢ $487 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $665 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 89¢ $1,152 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $711 4d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $712 4d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $411 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $991 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 48¢ $519 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records