Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xff27…073e sports 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$401 (-2%) realized −$418 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate78%114W / 32L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$1,427
14 days−$1,069
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$642
other 27% −$1,203
world 12% +$234
finance 9% +$176
crypto 7% −$331
politics 1% +$5
culture 0% +$14
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.3% -17.9% 80% 28% -36.0%
≤30d 72 -0.9% -10.3% 82% 42% -10.8%
≤90d 89 -1.0% -10.4% 82% 39% -10.3%
all 146 -0.0% -9.5% 78% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 41% -11.6%
10% -18.2% 21% -20.1%
15% -26.1% 12% -27.8%
20% -33.3% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$78 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses114 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage159d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 97¢ 100¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$14 +27%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $325 +$19 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $100 +$19 +18%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$46 -76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $62 −$48 -78%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $500 +$12 +2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,708 −$1,308 -77%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $302 −$174 -58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $220 +$12 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $501 +$48 +10%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $501 +$37 +7%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $60 +$22 +36%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $81 −$75 -93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $501 +$31 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $501 +$48 +10%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $551 +$24 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$35 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $702 +$59 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 11 $112 +$30 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 72¢ $225 41h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL No 32¢ $35 41h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 90¢ $100 43h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 84¢ $100 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 91¢ $30 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $501 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $105 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 4d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $102 4d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $100 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 90¢ $100 4d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 97¢ $100 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 5d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 94¢ $100 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 94¢ $100 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $20 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.53 · official $316.53 (match) · 394 history records