Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff28…c085 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-17%) realized −$121 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$101
14 days−$132
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$87
other 31% −$67
tech 12% +$2
world 2% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 1% −$6
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -24.7% -31.8% 38% 31% -26.4%
≤30d 38 -20.7% -28.2% 37% 34% -28.0%
≤90d 38 -20.7% -28.2% 37% 34% -28.0%
all 38 -20.7% -28.2% 37% 34% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 34% -28.0%
10% -35.1% 34% -34.9%
15% -41.4% 24% -41.2%
20% -47.1% 18% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage21d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 73¢ 53¢ $58 $42 −$16 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 62¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "History" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? No 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? No 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 24 $62 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $77 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$21 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +70%
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Jun 24 $93 +$2 +2%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 24 $71 −$1 -2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $13 +$7 +56%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Memorandum" this week? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$36 +685%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $56 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 30¢ $53 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA W BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wo BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA W BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wo BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.44 · official $56.44 (match) · 124 history records