Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff2a…bfef sports 405 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$107 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%192W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$50
14 days+$254
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$101
other 16% −$235
world 1% +$347
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +2.2% -7.6% 47% 46% -7.4%
≤30d 163 +4.8% -5.2% 48% 47% -5.1%
≤90d 394 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 48% -8.8%
all 394 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 48% -8.8%
10% -15.0% 47% -17.5%
15% -23.2% 47% -25.5%
20% -30.7% 46% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$27 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses192 / 202
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions10
Markets (closed)394 / 405
History coverage84d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 52¢ 86¢ $65 $107 +$42 (+64%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $55 $76 +$21 (+38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $55 $41 −$14 (-25%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $80 $31 −$49 (-61%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $55 $31 −$24 (-44%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $45 $22 −$22 (-50%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 24¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 40¢ 12¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $34 +$41 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$44 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $33 +$33 +97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $33 −$33 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$59 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$28 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $33 −$33 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $56 +$53 +95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $34 +$34 +101%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $56 +$54 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $33 +$31 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $34 +$66 +197%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $34 +$61 +180%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$46 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $33 +$31 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $34 +$58 +172%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $33 +$30 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $33 −$33 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 −$6 -14%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $29 +$30 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $66 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $34 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $41 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $33 19h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $33 19h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $33 21h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $33 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $41 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $33 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $51 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $34 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 36¢ $34 41h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $33 43h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $34 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $41 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $51 46h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $33 46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 39¢ $31 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 43¢ $51 2d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $53 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.73 · official $415.23 (match) · 726 history records