Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff2e…8ae6 politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$8
other 22% −$4
crypto 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,012) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage88d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $1,065 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 23 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 23 $1,048 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on May 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 05 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $914 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 04 $938 −$2 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 03 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 30 $967 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $135 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $77 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $820 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 3h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $270 3h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,091 3h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $74 24h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,092 24h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 25h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 25h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 25h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $160 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 25h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $728 26h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $308 26h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 26h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 26h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 49d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 49d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on SELL No 100¢ $20 49d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on SELL No 100¢ $10 49d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 49d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on BUY No 100¢ $31 49d
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL No 100¢ $45 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records