Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

FF 0xff31…847f other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$153 (+22%) realized +$163 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$7

14 days+$22

30 days+$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-2.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-47.8%	-52.8%	33%	33%	-7.0%
≤30d	14	-45.0%	-50.3%	36%	36%	-3.1%
≤90d	14	-45.0%	-50.3%	36%	36%	-3.1%
all	22	+8.3%	-2.0%	55%	55%	+18.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.0%	55%	+18.3%
10%	-11.4%	55%	+7.0%
15%	-20.0%	45%	-3.3%
20%	-27.8%	41%	-12.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +79% → late -63% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage

Net worth$168

Realized+$163

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)22 / 30

History coverage231d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$54	$64	+$10 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	7¢	$56	$38	−$18 (-33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$23	+$7	+30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$59	+$13	+23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$19	−$19	-98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$4	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$30	+59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$30	+$35	+114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$58	+$25	+44%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$163	+$94	+58%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	Nov 02	$6	+$4	+59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner	Nov 02	$6	+$4	+59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner	Nov 02	$6	+$4	+59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 01	$3	+$7	+270%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 01	$2	+$8	+300%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 01	$2	−$2	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$19	+$20	+108%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$4	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$36	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	83¢	$30	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$23	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$73	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$59	3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$19	3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$31	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$81	5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$30	7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$58	8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$57	8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$18	8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$54	9d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	SELL T1	100¢	$257	222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	63¢	$101	222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	64¢	$24	222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	64¢	$9	222d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.20 · official $168.14 (match) · 57 history records