Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff32…8932 sports 788 markets active 9h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$35 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%416W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$53
14 days−$54
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$15
other 35% −$3
world 4% −$15
politics 3% −$5
economics 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -17.6% -25.4% 42% 39% -27.8%
≤30d 226 -13.3% -21.5% 49% 47% -18.1%
≤90d 458 -10.4% -18.9% 54% 53% -11.4%
all 768 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 52% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 52% -11.7%
10% -24.5% 46% -20.2%
15% -31.8% 36% -27.9%
20% -38.5% 23% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses416 / 352
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)768 / 788
History coverage264d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 34¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +54%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +116%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N Jun 17 $1 +$1 +113%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +78%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -11%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 39¢ $1 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0 BUY 42¢ $1 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 89¢ $2 11h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY 64¢ $1 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY 62¢ $1 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 18h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL 79¢ $1 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 55¢ $1 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $1 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY 57¢ $1 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $1 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Col BUY 41¢ $1 22h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will P BUY 51¢ $1 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $1 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $1 38h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 66¢ $1 45h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $1 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 16¢ $1 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N BUY 46¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL 44¢ $4 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $2 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $4 2d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.34 · official $4.35 · 1617 history records