Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xff34…ea84 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+24%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$57
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.5% -22.7% 57% 57% +13.7%
≤30d 7 -14.5% -22.7% 57% 57% +13.7%
≤90d 7 -14.5% -22.7% 57% 57% +13.7%
all 7 -14.5% -22.7% 57% 57% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 57% +13.7%
10% -30.1% 57% +2.8%
15% -36.8% 43% -7.1%
20% -43.0% 14% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.31 per $1 lost it wins $4.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $44 +$14 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $90 +$34 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$27 +39%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$9 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $58 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 71¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $90 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records