Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff35…175d world 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$113 (+2%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$8
sports 39% +$127
other 7% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.3% -19.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 9 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.2% 35% 0% -8.0%
all 17 -0.8% -10.2% 35% 0% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -8.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -16.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -24.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$4 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage86d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $446 −$2 -0%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $250 $0 +0%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 −$10 -33%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) Jun 02 $484 +$41 +8%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $484 −$1 -0%
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? May 27 $55 −$2 -3%
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) May 26 $480 +$40 +8%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 25 $482 −$5 -1%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) May 24 $485 +$25 +5%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 23 $485 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) May 22 $488 +$12 +2%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? May 21 $484 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 03 $457 $0 -0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $380 $0 +0%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) Apr 20 $385 +$20 +5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Apr 19 $383 $0 +0%
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.5% and 1.7%? Mar 31 $204 −$11 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $445 0m
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $446 41m
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 SELL No 96¢ $250 45m
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $250 1h
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $16 5d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 5d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 92¢ $484 24d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $484 24d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $484 24d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $53 26d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $55 26d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $31 26d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) BUY Rosenborg BK 92¢ $480 28d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $477 28d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $482 28d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY FC Internazionale Milano 95¢ $485 30d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $485 30d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $485 30d
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) BUY AFC Ajax 98¢ $488 32d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 32d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $465 32d
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $484 32d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $457 50d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $457 51d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $380 63d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $380 63d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) BUY Alanyaspor 95¢ $385 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $41 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $342 64d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $383 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records