Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff37…0cb7 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%25W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$2
crypto 33% $0
other 11% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -5.0% -14.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 0% -11.6%
all 30 -1.1% -10.5% 83% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -11.1%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses25 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage108d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $220 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $142 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 04 $100 −$14 -14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? Mar 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 11? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 10? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $113 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $145 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $142 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $142 25d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $11 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $14 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records