Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff38…738d crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 434d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,617 (-15%) realized −$1,567 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%73W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$742
7 days−$742
14 days−$742
30 days−$742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$1,119
politics 34% −$423
sports 16% −$75
other 8% +$66
finance 1% −$65
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 23% -45.3%
≤30d 48 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 23% -45.3%
≤90d 109 -14.2% -22.4% 52% 45% -28.2%
all 146 -15.2% -23.3% 50% 39% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 39% -23.4%
10% -30.6% 29% -30.7%
15% -37.3% 25% -37.4%
20% -43.5% 18% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$45 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

434d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$1,567
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses73 / 73
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)146 / 153
History coverage434d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 50¢ 29¢ $46 $26 −$19 (-43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-61%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $18 +$4 +23%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $50 +$9 +19%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$3 +12%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $43 −$16 -38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +48%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$97 +96%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $92 +$43 +47%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $121 −$49 -41%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 21 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $74 +$16 +22%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $36 +$24 +65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $66 +$25 +39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$3 -8%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $81 +$33 +41%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $14 −$5 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $22 2m
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 2m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $18 8m
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 11m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 30m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 35m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 35m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 39m
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 58m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21 BUY 3¢ $21 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 37¢ $9 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: 2nd BUY 10¢ $21 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 99¢ $125 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 79¢ $60 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 79¢ $47 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $122 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 67¢ $40 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.88 · official $113.89 · 1156 history records