Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff3d…d7dc crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-7%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%60W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$20
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$24
sports 36% −$50
other 12% +$22
finance 1% −$10
weather 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -18.0%
≤30d 26 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 54% -12.8%
≤90d 26 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 54% -12.8%
all 102 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 49% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 49% -15.3%
10% -22.4% 33% -23.4%
15% -29.9% 24% -30.8%
20% -36.7% 17% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses60 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage98d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$6 +20%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $25 +$5 +20%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $10 +$6 +63%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 -1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $50 −$48 -96%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$47 +115%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$8 +36%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$19 -95%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$2 -71%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 +$1 +26%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +32%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Mar 28 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 28 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 28 $8 +$3 +44%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $53 −$21 -39%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $4 −$3 -88%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Mar 27 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27? Mar 27 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26? Mar 26 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$1 -69%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 98¢ $36 49m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 81¢ $30 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 98¢ $30 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 81¢ $25 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL T1 99¢ $16 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes $1 37h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over $2 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $50 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 4d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $87 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 66¢ $22 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $21 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records