Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff41…f089 other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,818 (-2%) realized −$2,818 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%34W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$15
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$58
other 35% −$181
sports 18% −$2,547
world 4% −$22
crypto 2% +$3
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% −$20
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 1% -10.5%
all 140 -5.7% -14.7% 24% 6% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 6% -11.6%
10% -22.8% 6% -20.0%
15% -30.3% 6% -27.8%
20% -37.1% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,190) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$31 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$779
Realized−$2,818
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses34 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage149d
Avg bet$908
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $779 $779 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,113 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $4,226 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,078 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $510 +$3 +1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,781 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,172 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,482 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,894 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 01 $277 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $292 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $302 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? Apr 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 21 $292 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 21 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3,559 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,243 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,582 −$4 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,427 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $6,309 −$6 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $243 3h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $237 22h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $238 24h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 26h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 27h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $204 28h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $204 29h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $779 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $964 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $966 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $913 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $914 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $827 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $828 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $897 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $898 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $911 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $913 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $711 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $712 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,082 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,083 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,182 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,183 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,022 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $778.55 · official $778.55 (match) · 453 history records