Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff42…1548 crypto 1312 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,608 (+3%) realized +$1,608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate85%1109W / 203L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$62
14 days+$57
30 days+$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$684
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +5.0% -5.0% 75% 22% -8.4%
≤30d 562 +0.6% -9.0% 85% 18% -8.1%
≤90d 1312 +2.1% -7.6% 85% 20% -8.4%
all 1312 +2.1% -7.6% 85% 20% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 20% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 14% -17.2%
15% -24.5% 10% -25.2%
20% -31.9% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1109 / 203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1312 / 1312
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1312 Trades
no open positions (176 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$51 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $66 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $68 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$20 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $65 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $72 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $69 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $66 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $41 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $63 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $68 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $56 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $33 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records