trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -37.3% | -43.3% | 50% | 0% | -17.9% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -37.3% | -43.3% | 50% | 0% | -17.9% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -39.6% | -45.3% | 43% | 29% | -10.2% |
| all | 25 | -35.7% | -41.8% | 20% | 8% | -23.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.8% | 8% | -23.2% |
| 10% | -47.4% | 8% | -30.6% |
| 15% | -52.5% | 8% | -37.3% |
| 20% | -57.1% | 0% | -43.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $16 | $16 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? | Jun 27 | $7 | −$5 | -75% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Jun 27 | $47 | $0 | +1% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | Apr 09 | $295 | +$141 | +48% |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | Apr 08 | $195 | +$98 | +50% |
| Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies | Apr 06 | $80 | −$78 | -97% |
| Suns vs. Hornets | Apr 02 | $112 | −$109 | -98% |
| Suns vs. Grizzlies | Mar 30 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Suns | Mar 28 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Pistons | Mar 19 | $104 | −$104 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Pistons | Mar 19 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Bulls | Mar 19 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 06 | $34 | −$1 | -3% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $145 | −$46 | -32% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Feb 13 | $145 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 15? | Feb 08 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Feb 08 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | Jan 31 | $1 | −$1 | -74% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 25 | $28 | −$3 | -10% |
| Cerebras IPO before 2027? | Jan 03 | $176 | −$5 | -3% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition | Dec 22 | $89 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | Nov 25 | $166 | −$76 | -46% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | Nov 12 | $175 | −$9 | -5% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? | Nov 11 | $179 | −$4 | -2% |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2025? | Nov 06 | $47 | −$7 | -14% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 06 | $23 | −$6 | -27% |