Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff4d…0659 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1
world 33% +$1
politics 15% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 0% -9.2%
all 34 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage435d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on April 18? Apr 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $40 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $24 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $39 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $39 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $5 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records