Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff4d…f254 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 36% −$1
sports 11% +$22
economics 4% $0
politics 4% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.3%
all 33 +2.1% -7.6% 45% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -7.8%
10% -16.4% 3% -16.6%
15% -24.5% 3% -24.7%
20% -31.9% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.76 per $1 lost it wins $5.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage475d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $7 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $128 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $50 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 02 $5 $0 -3%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Apr 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $49 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 31 $48 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $7 −$1 -8%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $53 +$2 +4%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $56 −$3 -6%
Howard vs. North Carolina Central Mar 20 $34 +$22 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $40 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $43 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $33 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $23 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $14 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $44 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $44 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.38 · official $5.38 (match) · 117 history records