Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff4e…9300 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$10
sports 33% −$6
other 14% −$3
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 63 -0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage561d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $240 in May? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of March? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $533 in March? Apr 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $236 in January? Feb 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of November? Dec 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $2,331 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $2,425 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 27 $2,618 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $2,545 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $2,393 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Sep 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 25? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $997 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on Feb 28? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will ETHBTC be between .032-.033 on February 7? Feb 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 20 $2 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 80k or more acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +2%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $3 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $2 $0 +0%
Dolphins vs. Texans Dec 13 $40 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Dec 13 $16 $0 -0%
Commanders vs. Saints Dec 13 $27 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Pelicans Dec 12 $20 $0 -1%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Dec 12 $4 $0 -0%
Predators vs. Stars Dec 12 $6 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Dec 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? Dec 12 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 31d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $240 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 32d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 61d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $10 86d
Will Tesla reach $533 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 92d
Will NVIDIA reach $236 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 149d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of November? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 207d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $2,329 239d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $2,331 239d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2,423 239d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2,425 239d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,615 239d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,618 239d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,542 239d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,545 239d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,390 239d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,393 239d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 94¢ $23 249d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? BUY No 100¢ $2 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 99¢ $2 333d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 361d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Solana all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 394d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 395d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 424d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 455d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 457d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.76 · official $35.76 (match) · 203 history records