Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff4e…5502
crypto · 95 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$740 -107%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$787 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$145
Realized−$787
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses70 / 450
Open positions42
Markets (closed)520 / 95
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day851.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 42 History 520 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$905
7 days−$787
14 days−$787
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+50%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? No 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+200%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 12 $1 +$1 +139%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +618%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 18? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1209%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 17? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +3133%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $0 +$12 +11994000%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Jun 12 $14 −$4 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Trump Vodka" or "Trump Steak" in April? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NB Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in April? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 7? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will gemini-3-pro have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% +$190
other 17% +$31
politics 15% +$1
economics 6% +$6
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1m
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $1 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $4 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $3 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 520 -10.5% -19.0% 13% 13% -46.9%
≤30d 520 -10.5% -19.0% 13% 13% -46.9%
≤90d 520 -10.5% -19.0% 13% 13% -46.9%
all 520 -10.5% -19.0% 13% 13% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover851.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 13% -46.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 12% -52.0%
15% -33.9% 12% -56.6%
20% -40.3% 11% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.62 · official $144.62 (match) · 3500 history records