Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff53…055e other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 43L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$11
other 27% +$14
economics 4% $0
sports 3% +$33
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 12% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 50 +12.1% +1.4% 28% 18% -7.6%
all 60 +10.1% -0.4% 28% 15% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 15% -8.9%
10% -9.9% 15% -17.6%
15% -18.6% 13% -25.6%
20% -26.6% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage609d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $73 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$11 +165%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $6 +$8 +124%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $10 +$9 +90%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $5 +$6 +109%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 46h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 11d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 26d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $19 28d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $19 28d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $9 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.83 · official $67.83 (match) · 279 history records