Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff55…efef crypto 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$244 (-7%) realized −$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%188W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$318
14 days−$537
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -19.0% -26.7% 43% 41% -43.7%
≤30d 340 +3.7% -6.1% 55% 54% -21.1%
≤90d 340 +3.7% -6.1% 55% 54% -21.1%
all 340 +3.7% -6.1% 55% 54% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 54% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 54% -28.6%
15% -23.3% 53% -35.5%
20% -30.8% 51% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses188 / 152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)340 / 340
History coverage24d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 340 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $109 −$106 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$14 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$17 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $23 −$17 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$34 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $23 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $23 +$15 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $83 +$53 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $109 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 728 history records