Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FF 0xff55…1b4d other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$281 (-34%) realized −$297 · open +$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit8%portable

Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$97 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage

Net worth$518

Realized−$297

Unrealized+$16

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions9

Markets (closed)3 / 12

History coverage72d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	20¢	$90	$106	+$16 (+18%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	No	59¢	66¢	$90	$101	+$11 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$87	$73	−$13 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$57	$63	+$5 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	13¢	$39	$60	+$21 (+53%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$56	$47	−$10 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$29	$31	+$2 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	5¢	$46	$27	−$20 (-42%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$7	$11	+$4 (+51%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$115	−$113	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$84	−$82	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$95	−$95	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	59¢	$91	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	39¢	$115	24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	41¢	$46	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	41¢	$38	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	44¢	$95	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	17d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$6	17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$12	17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$16	17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$17	17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	25d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$11	25d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$17	25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	25d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	35d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	35d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	35d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$12	35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$17	35d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$19	35d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	35d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	35d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.63 · official $517.63 (match) · 118 history records