Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff56…ca81 other 657 markets active 2h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6,778 (-3%) realized −$6,792 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate62%379W / 236L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$32
14 days+$35
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$1,660
other 16% −$3,123
world 11% −$2,021
tech 2% −$210
economics 1% −$220
crypto 1% +$671
weather 0% −$292
sports 0% +$73
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.0% -16.7% 76% 14% -8.8%
≤30d 43 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 28% -8.3%
≤90d 60 -4.7% -13.7% 75% 27% -12.1%
all 615 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 16% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 16% -12.2%
10% -20.8% 6% -20.6%
15% -28.5% 4% -28.2%
20% -35.5% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$92 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$3,072
Realized−$6,792
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses379 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions42
Markets (closed)615 / 657
History coverage420d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $192 $192 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+4%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $93 $97 +$4 (+5%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $96 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 96¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$4 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $143 +$7 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 +$5 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $49 −$39 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $553 +$47 +9%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $215 +$5 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $326 +$19 +6%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +1%
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $457 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 14 $32 +$12 +38%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +3%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $151 +$4 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $497 +$61 +12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $44 +$5 +11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $47 −$3 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $45 +$5 +11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $34 +$16 +49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $45 +$5 +11%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $211 +$32 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $32 +$18 +59%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $42 +$12 +30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 17 $49 +$1 +1%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $31 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 17 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 12h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 12h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $46 12h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 12h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 12h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 12h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $47 12h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 12h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 12h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $49 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $291 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $145 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 3d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 93¢ $93 3d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $27 3d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $96 3d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $96 3d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $94 3d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $184 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,072.31 · official $3,072.31 (match) · 2920 history records