Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff57…fbfc crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-11%) realized −$23 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$132
other 15% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 36% -27.6%
≤30d 28 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 36% -27.6%
≤90d 28 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 36% -27.6%
all 28 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 36% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -27.6%
10% -31.8% 36% -34.5%
15% -38.4% 36% -40.9%
20% -44.4% 29% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $27 $21 −$5 (-20%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Yes 37¢ 3¢ $59 $4 −$55 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$99 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$37 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $29 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.49 · official $25.49 (match) · 80 history records