Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FF 0xff5a…af9f crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$38 · open +$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$130per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+33.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	67%	+25.3%
≤30d	3	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	67%	+25.3%
≤90d	3	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	67%	+25.3%
all	3	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	67%	+25.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.7%	67%	+25.3%
10%	+20.9%	67%	+13.3%
15%	+9.2%	67%	+2.4%
20%	-1.5%	67%	-7.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$532

Realized−$38

Unrealized+$19

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$130

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$469	$490	+$21 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	56¢	50¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$18	$19	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$20	+76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane	Jun 22	$97	+$59	+61%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper	Jun 22	$99	+$6	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Up	80¢	$46	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane	SELL Terence Atmane	71¢	$156	2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane	BUY Terence Atmane	44¢	$97	5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper	BUY Jack Draper	47¢	$99	5h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	11¢	$486	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.51 · official $531.51 (match) · 11 history records