Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff5c…4bf5 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+4%) realized +$52 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$48
sports 3% +$3
politics 3% +$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 76% 43% -2.9%
≤30d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 76% 43% -2.9%
≤90d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 76% 43% -2.9%
all 21 -0.9% -10.3% 76% 43% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 43% -2.9%
10% -18.9% 38% -12.2%
15% -26.7% 19% -20.6%
20% -33.9% 14% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$927
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions36
Markets (closed)21 / 57
History coverage5d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $178 $184 +$6 (+4%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $133 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $100 $103 +$4 (+4%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 76¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 84¢ 84¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 73¢ 95¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 60¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 68¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 80¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 90¢ 98¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 +$2 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $43 +$10 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +71%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$21 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $77 +$4 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $37 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $49 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $10 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $34 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $45 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $43 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $7 36h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $3 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 40h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $13 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $9 2d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $12 2d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $69 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $24 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $95 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $8 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $927.07 · official $927.08 (match) · 91 history records