Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff62…78c4 other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%14W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$6
politics 17% −$5
sports 11% −$21
economics 8% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 9% -9.7%
all 94 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 9% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses14 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage88d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $713 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $87 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $457 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $417 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $229 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $230 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $477 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $439 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $436 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $463 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $406 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $487 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $461 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $680 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $91 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $97 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 21d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $60 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 23d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $87 26d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 27d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 29d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $55 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $55 30d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $235 33d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $235 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.56 · official $187.56 (match) · 272 history records