Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff63…30d7
world · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses25 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage525d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 36¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 −$1 -29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $121 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $79 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $37 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $88 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $43 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $3 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $7 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $72 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $5 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $3 $0 -17%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $130 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $36 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% −$2
other 20% −$3
politics 19% $0
sports 7% −$5
economics 4% $0
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $30 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $18 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $37 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.3% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 59 -0.6% -10.1% 37% 0% -9.5%
all 64 -1.7% -11.0% 39% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.20 · official $29.20 (match) · 274 history records