Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff68…8379 sports 753 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$421 (+3%) realized +$425 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%298W / 434L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$4,051
14 days−$3,557
30 days−$2,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$146
crypto 14% +$666
other 4% −$316
world 1% −$111
politics 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 -58.9% -62.8% 14% 13% -54.5%
≤30d 619 -16.6% -24.6% 32% 30% -27.7%
≤90d 732 -4.6% -13.7% 41% 36% -7.1%
all 732 -4.6% -13.7% 41% 36% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 36% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 35% -16.0%
15% -29.5% 33% -24.1%
20% -36.4% 31% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$425
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses298 / 434
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions13
Markets (closed)732 / 753
History coverage60d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+140%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 28¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $20 +$25 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $106 −$105 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $182 +$132 +72%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 28 $93 +$18 +19%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 Jun 28 $59 −$58 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-6.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $15 +$46 +302%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 30¢ $5 53m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 21¢ $5 55m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $70 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $36 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 9¢ $3 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 8¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 14¢ $0 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $81 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 2h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $2 2h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 85¢ $1 2h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $1 2h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 85¢ $84 2h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $5 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $33 2h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 18¢ $10 2h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 3¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 2¢ $1 2h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 95¢ $57 2h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 23¢ $6 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.