Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff6d…584e other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% $0
other 23% $0
politics 15% +$1
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 5 +2.7% -7.1% 40% 20% -6.7%
≤90d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 13% -9.5%
all 47 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage307d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 87¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $12 −$1 -9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $3 +$1 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $68 −$4 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $70 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $7 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $26 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $7 $0 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 08 $1 $0 -25%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $42 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $45 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $45 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $27 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $27 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $11 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $12 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $33 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $28 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $37 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $40 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 58¢ $44 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 58¢ $44 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.76 · official $41.76 (match) · 322 history records