Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff6e…176e crypto 1423 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,441 (-10%) realized −$3,440 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate87%1232W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$209
14 days−$3,771
30 days−$3,984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$4,035
other 15% −$6
world 3% −$36
tech 1% −$2
sports 1% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -57.1% -61.2% 35% 7% -36.7%
≤30d 461 -8.3% -17.0% 70% 61% -41.9%
≤90d 1420 -3.1% -12.3% 87% 22% -19.7%
all 1420 -3.1% -12.3% 87% 22% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 22% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 12% -27.4%
15% -28.4% 5% -34.4%
20% -35.4% 1% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$31 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$3,440
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1232 / 188
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1420 / 1423
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$17 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$76 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $81 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $75 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.39 · official $79.39 (match) · 3500 history records