Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff6f…8bfe crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%30W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$39
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$24
other 6% $0
sports 2% +$2
world 2% −$5
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.2% -26.0% 64% 9% -37.1%
≤30d 39 -5.2% -14.2% 64% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 52 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 35% -12.7%
all 52 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 35% -12.7%
10% -23.4% 21% -21.1%
15% -30.8% 15% -28.7%
20% -37.5% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage88d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 47¢ 35¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $35 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Nothing Ever Happens: March Jun 07 $3 +$3 +96%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 13 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 03 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Apr 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) Mar 23 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 22 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 22 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 22 $1 +$1 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 11¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 20¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $29 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.32 · official $2.32 (match) · 151 history records